Peso to reach P44 to $1
Prakriti Sofat, an economist from leading global investment house Barclays Capital said the peso could reach 44 to the dollar level by the end of the year because of recovery in exports and the steady inflows of remittances.
In the report from Philippine Star, Sofat said the outlook for Philippine exports remains positive given the strong turnaround in the global electronics cycle.
Lead indicators such as the US manufacturing survey and semi-conductor book-to-bill ratio, according to Sofat, remain supporting to growth. She also noted that movements in the region remain favorable, with both Korea and Taiwan seeing strong exports prints in February and China remaining in expansionary territory.
“Our 12-month forecast for the dollar to the pesos is P44,” Sofat said. The Bangko Sentra ng Pilipinas, for its part, expects the pesos to hit a range of 46-49 against the dollar this year.
The 42.5 percent rise in the Philippine exports in January was a 15-year high, it was even higher than Barclays Capital’s forecast of 36-percent bounce. The total receipts reached $3.6В billion.
“On a seasonally-adjusted basis, exports rose by 4.8 percent month-on-month following on from a 0.4-percent decline in December and a 6.2-percent increase in November,” Sofat explained.
She also added, “we expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep the overnight borrowing rate unchanged at four percent at the upcoming meeting given relatively contained inflation and cautious outlook on growth.”
March 14, 2010
Tags: dollar, economy, export, Foreign exchange, forex, Peso, Philippines, remittances Posted in: Consumers, Foreign exchange, Government, Philippine business news, banking, entrepreneur, finance, investments, money
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